Trading Ideas

Dollar continues to weaken ahead of FOMAC

2008-12-15T20:10:00.003+01:00

risk aversion leads to dollar decline

a likely GM default will weaken the dollar even more

Update EUR/USD

2008-12-03T18:36:00.003+01:00

It is questionable if we reach the expected target. I took my profit and will short this thing @ around 1.2900 with a stop loss @ 1.3210 with a target at around 1.2300 and further to 1.1500!
Nice move...

EUR/USD Big Picture

2008-11-27T19:45:00.004+01:00

Hi my fellow Traders!
This is my first blog for quite a long time. Let us have a look at EUR/USD. You can see the long EUR bullmarket since 2001from the lows at 0.8383 up to the previous highs at 1.6000. After a break of the uptrend we saw a typical pullback and right now we trade at the 38.2% retracement level. I am long at the EUR/USD pair right now. My expected target is 1.3300 about 700 Pips away.
If GM defaults in the next few days I hope we see a further gains up to 1.3600 or so.
Happy Pip-Hunting!

EUR/JPY

2008-06-05T22:14:00.002+02:00

Guten Morgen,

die gestrigen Trichet Kommentare über den Eurokurs und mögliche Zinsentscheide "...es ist nicht bestimmt aber es könnte einen Zinsschritt geben" und "...kleinere Zinserhöhung in der nächsten Zeit..." führten zu massiven Kursgewinnen im Währungspaar EUR/JPY.
Der massive Anstieg des Währungspaars ist nicht gerechtfertigt, es sei denn das Thema Carry-Trades und eine mögliche positive Korrelation zu den Aktienmärkten (insbesondere DAX und Dow Jones) rückt wieder in den Focus der Spekulaten. In diesem Fall sollten wir in der nächsten Zeit einen positiven Aktienmarkt sehen.

Ich wünsche einen erfolgreichen Handelstag!

Put the odds in your favour

2008-05-03T11:40:00.000+02:00

I had some interesting conversations with FXI members about money management issues over the last few weeks. My impression was that especially newbies has a lack of knowledge about money management thoughts. That is why I want to share some thoughts about this important topic. I want to stress that these explanations are NOT the Holy Gral. Feel free and post any comments and suggestions to that topic - we will all learn from these.

As a Trader you only can make money with your money. If you lost all your money you are out of the game. That is why it is so important to have a "battle" plan and how you can survive. To survive means to have enough money to enter into the next trade. If you risk 10% of your initial capital you can have 10 losses in a row, before you run out of cash. The probability to have 10 losers in a row is quite high. You can calculate it as:

10LoserInARow = 0.5^10
10LoserInARow = 0.0009765 = 0.009765%

As a general rule you can say:

x Loser in a row = 0.5^x

If you think that 0.009% is quite low and you will never have 10 losers in a row, I have to disappoint you. My personal experience told me that 10 losers in a row are quite likely. To exclude this possibility and to prevent yourself from a financial disaster you cannot risk 10% per trade. The chances to whip yourself out of the market are too high.
You need to prepare yourself for these events. If you are very aggressive you can risk 5%. The general experience of life told you, that you should risk a maximum of 2% of your account equity at any given time. Trading with 1% or even less is stress-free trading. You have your emotions under control and you can make rational decisions. And if someone told you that you should only trade, if you can "afford" to loose the money, then this person had not understand our business. Again, if you run out of cash, you are out of business. (Or do you only build a house, if can afford it, that it will burn down? How silly is that?) - Remember trading is a business.
Ok, then we need a plan to survive. The first step we have already done. We know that we only trade with a maximum of 2% of our initial capital.
The next step is to find good trade setups with at least a 2:1 winning ratio. That means that for every pip you loose, you have to win 2. With a risk of 30 Pips you need a profit target of 60 Pips or even more. And I think some facts are quite comfortable for a stress-free trading:

With a 2:1 winning ratio you only need a 34% profitable trades to survive.
If you risk a fixed percentage of your current account balance you will have a compounded interest effect. You risk more (in terms of pips) with a growing account balance and less with a decreasing account balance.

If you follow this simple rules you will have a greater possibility to survive.

Update EUR/USD Long

2008-04-24T09:11:00.001+02:00

New Stop-Loss @ 5750 or take profit @ market with 10 Pips profit

Update EUR/USD Long Position

2008-04-16T12:20:00.001+02:00

New All-Time High @ 1.5966

The Next Mortgage Crisis

2008-04-15T20:57:00.001+02:00

Check It Out!

Update EUR/USD Long

2008-04-14T13:42:00.005+02:00

Keep cool! The current long position in EUR/USD is still active. Today's low was @ 5673. My stop is still @ 5670. I expect a stronger Euro in the next few weeks. The G7 Meeting will not affect the price movements in long-term.
Cheers...

Update Short USD/CNY

2008-04-10T08:47:00.003+02:00

USD/CNY breaks 7.00 USD for the first time! The forward rates for USD/CNY are @ 6.30 within 12 month!

EUR/USD Long

2008-04-09T19:44:00.002+02:00

Hi Guys,

Bullflag in EUR/USD - Long and set Stop-Loss @5670

Cheers!

NFP Recap

2008-04-05T14:00:00.007+02:00

Hi Traders,

I traded GBP/JPY yesterday for the NFP event. The NFP figures were very bad, but you know it. Ok, here is my trade. I decided to trade the GBP/JPY because of the high volatility.

As you can see in the chart the volatility increased minutes before the release. I waited for the release and a possible pull-back of the chart. A good entry-point would be the 50% retracement of the initial spike.

Waiting 4 long minutes without trading! Why? Because I hate risk. Why I trade? Because of the high volatility and a good expected return. But I know NFP is the best time in the month to loose money. Ok, I wait for the pullback: 50% Retracement would be great and I will short this thing.

I draw the Fib-Lines and place an stop-sell order @ 204.05 = 50% Fib-level. Hope I get filled by my broker and the pullback is strong enough.

Strike! Exactly the 50% Retracement I was filled. Ok and now I must set a stop-loss to protect my account. The next candle opened and prices declined. My plan: set the stop at entry after the close of the next candle and then reset the stop at the 38.2% Fib if the pair will drop further and so on.

Oh, oh...look at this here is a nice pullback. I hoped not to stopped-out at break-even....

Thanks! At the close of the next candle I would reset my stop-loss at the 38.2 % @ 203.90

Cool, this candle is red too and I could set my stop-loss @ 203.70 this is the 23.6% Fib-Level. I banked some pips right now. Remember I filled in @ 204.05 and set my new stop-loss @ 203.70 this means that I banked 29 Pips (6 pips spread).

What a pity I stopped out @ my 23.6% Fib-Level. But I could gain some 29 Pips. That was my NFP day...
Have a nice weekend :-)

Update FX Trader Contest 2008 - 5th week

2008-04-04T16:51:00.001+02:00

Hi!
My account is up to 7.50%. I only trade one Lot this week, because of the NFP. Have a great weekend.
Cheers
;-)

Update FX Trader Contest 2008 - 4th week

2008-03-31T09:44:00.004+02:00

Hi Guys!

My Account is up to 7.16% right now. I will wait for the official ranking from NordMarkets. Remember that I only risk 1% of my equity at any trade and not more like the other guys.

Update Short USD/CNY

2008-03-27T18:59:00.002+01:00

Update :

My current long-term short position in USD/CNY is in profit with approx. 95 Pips and is still running. Target < 6.9000

Update FX Trader Contest 2008 - 3rd week

2008-03-26T08:37:00.004+01:00

Hi Guys,
I am up 4.74% right now. But remember that I only risk 1% on equity.
Cheers...

FX Trader of the Year Contest 2008 - 2nd Week

2008-03-17T17:45:00.008+01:00

Due to technical problems with the trading software I couldn't close my open positions, that's why I am only up to 2.72%. The current ranking can be find at: http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?p=10926#post10926

Short Market Commentary

2008-03-17T12:09:00.002+01:00

J.P. Morgan to buy Bears Stearns at $2 a share Fed approved. The US Economy is now an "Everything for a dollar shop". A 100bp cut from the Fed is now on the cards at Tuesday's meeting.

FX Trader of the Year Contest 2008

2008-03-11T21:25:00.003+01:00

I attend the FX Trader of the Year Contest 2008 sponsored by Nordmarkets.com after the first week I rank at #74 with a small profit of about 3.80%. Some of the 700 traders are already blew their capital off!

Here you will find the ranking:

http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?p=10667#post10667

Happy Pip Hunting!

USD/JPY Trade Review

2008-02-22T15:46:00.008+01:00

Hi guys,
Today the markets were a pretty choppy. That is why I coundn't blog in real-time, while I was trading. But never the less here is my trade in USD/JPY. I went short @ 107.28 with a target @ 106.93 = 35 Pips Profit. My initial Stop-Loss were set @ 107.40. My Risk/Reward Ratio was: 2,9.

Let's look at the charts:

You can see a double top in the Asian-Session. The overall trend was down, so the only way I would enter a trade was short. I decided to short at the pullback of the break-out.

The "real"pullback never came. But there was a good opportunity for a short. The price pauses at M2 (107.28) That was a good opportunity to get into the short position. And the overall trend was down too.

Let's look what happened: The USD/JPY fell to S1 @ 106.93. Where I put my take profit order.

This was a stress free nice 35 Pips Move! Yes, indeed I am a very conservative trader. But capital preseravtion is one of my trading goals, because I want to trade even in 100 years.

Happy stress-free trading.

USDJPY + 50 Pips

2008-02-15T09:22:00.004+01:00

Overnight I made 50 Pips on the USDJPY Long Trade.

correlations between JPY,S&P and CHF

2008-02-14T19:12:00.008+01:00

High correlations are seen between JPY, S&P and CHF. On the daily chart we see a possible double-bottom in the S&P Future. USDJPY is after the pull-back near the break-out level. So there is a good opportunity for a USDJPY long trade with a low risk high reward ratio. That's why I did the following trade @ 1800 GMT:

USDJPY Long @ 107.80 with tight stop@ 107.45 Target: 108.30

Stopped Out at EUR/NZD with more than 200 pips profit

2008-02-13T15:08:00.003+01:00

The daily high was at 1.8593 . If you are not stopped out by your broker, close the current position.

Update EUR/NZD

2008-02-11T15:12:00.001+01:00

New Stop-Loss at 1.86 plus Spread!

Newstrading

2008-02-08T13:18:00.001+01:00

This is the USDCAD on 08.02.2008 12.00 GMT after the release of the unemployment figures in Canada. The USDCAD dropped within milliseconds more than 70 pips. So be aware of news releases.

Update EURNZD

2008-02-08T09:00:00.001+01:00

I expected an upside-breakout, but there was a nice downside break with a pull-back and an good entry point 1.8716! Up to now I have a nice profit of approx. 300 pips profit and EURNZD is still moving downwards.

EURNZD new on the watch-list

2008-01-25T20:09:00.000+01:00

Waiting for the triangle-breakout!

EUR/JPY Short Trade from 01/18/2008

2008-01-19T13:49:00.001+01:00

Hello,
today it is Saturday and the FX market is closed. Let us review a profitable trade from Friday the 18th January 2008. I short EUR/JPY.

As you can see on the chart EUR/JPY was in a uptrend. The Stochastic shows us a beautiful divergence. The Fibonacci Retracements were at 157.30 (23.6%) and 156.97 (38.20%), which were my first target. At 156.97 you can see the up trend line and a support area in combination with the 38.20% retracement and the Stoc. divergence. => Short EUR/JPY with a stop-loss at 157.80.
Lets see what will hapen:

Yes, we have reached our first target! And now? Take profit? The Stochastic is oversold .The candle is large and green. Ok, let us set a stop at the 23.60 % retracement at 157.28.

After a break of the expected support area, we see a bouce back and we were stoped-out. Ok, thats trading! Let's see if this was only volatility. The next candle was red. And the former uptrend will be tested. Let's see what will happen in the next 5 minutes:
we drop out of our up trend. The candle closed below. Short at Market with the open of the next candle. Stop-Loss at our swing high at 157.33/35 and hope! Target next support level at 156.47.

It was right to short the market again! We reached the target after a few candles. I set a new stop-loss at 156.72 (50% retracement). I didn't close the trade because we have a nice downtrend on the 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes charts and the Sroc. shows divergences.

The downtrend continues. The downtrend were tested about 3 times. The 4th time the trend broke and I close the position with 140 Pips profit!

And now? Will the downtrend continue?
I do not think so, I think we will see a bounce back. Long? I do not want to trade against this trend. A swing to 157.36 (23.6% retracement) is possible. In this area we see the upper downtrend line and the Stoc. is oversold, too. I think it is likely to see an up-swing to 157.36.
Next week we will see. Happy Trading!

Think about it!

2008-01-18T12:19:00.000+01:00

Don't believe in anything simply because you have heard it.
Don't believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations.
Don't believe in anything simply because it is found written in your books.
Don't believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.
But after observation and analysis when you find that anything agrees with
reason then accept it and live up to it.

no trading ideas? check this out!

2008-01-07T13:30:00.000+01:00

http://www.gsn.com/minigames/swfs/gsn_wrapper.swf?gameID=15"

EUR/USD My Trading Day

2007-12-14T14:47:00.000+01:00

Hello Guys!
Today it's Friday 12th December 2007 - a really tough trading day! Here is my trade:
As you can see in the chart EUR/USD plunged from 1.4655 to 1.4482. I decided to go long when the first green lage candle would appear, it was not really an bullish engulfing pattern, but the candle was bullish. With the open of the next candle I buy at the market. My position was filled at 1.4498. I place an OCO Order: Sell-Leg at 1.4523 (23% Retracement) and a Stop-Loss at 1.4480 (my spread under the current trading day low).

The following 90 minutes were quite interesting. The market came down again and my Stop-Loss was in danger, but the pair rose again and my sell position was filled at 1.4523 and I was out of market and made a nice profit of 25 pips.
We will see what will happen in the next few hours. I will not trade again this week, the market is not really predictable at this time. Next week we will see, how I can make money!

Have a nice weekend!

USDCAD short at market

2007-11-29T12:01:00.001+01:00

USDCAD short at market, target 0.9800 stop-loss: 0.9935

USD/CAD Long Exit

2007-11-15T14:31:00.000+01:00

USD/CAD Exit Long , because of the heavy resistant:
38,2 Retracement and 50 moving-average
Proft: +50 pips

USD/CAD Long

2007-11-14T19:36:00.000+01:00

Buy USD/CAD because of a bullflag on the one hour chart and the 5 min. chart.
Target 1.0000
Stop-loss: 0.9450

and remember: trading currenies involves financial risks

USD historical lows

2007-11-11T11:11:00.001+01:00

Because of the historical lows of the USD the question arises, if Central Banks around the globe will intervention to stem the decline against other major currencies.
If we have a short look at the chart, we can see in DX Z7 (US DOLLAR FUTURE DEZ.07) a bearish falling gap. If we see another historical lows (<75.10) the minimum target will be 72.00, but if we will see in the next few days an upside gap, than opportunities on the long-side will be seen. I don't think that what we see in the chart below is an trend reversal pattern. I think the USD will continue to weaken.

And remember: Trading currencies involves financial risks and is not appropriate for everyone.

Update USD/CAD

2007-11-09T17:45:00.000+01:00

close long USD/CAD position @ 0.9400
our profit: +250 pips within 48 hours

Update USD/CAD

2007-11-08T20:49:00.000+01:00

nice profits: 180 pips within 24 hours
close half of the position and the new stop-loss 0.9190

USD/CAD Long target 0.9500

2007-11-07T21:29:00.000+01:00

USD/CAD Long traget 0.9500 stop-loss 0.9050

and remember: trading involves financial risks

my current Watch List - long only

2007-11-04T09:48:00.000+01:00

The following Shares are in my Watch List (only longs):

USO - United States Oil Fund
TRA - Terra Industries Inc.
TXT - Textraon Inc.
RMDX - Remotemdx Inc.

all shares are very bullish, but the liquidity is very low, so only trade with linits and stops

Exit Long ED Z7

2007-10-30T16:18:00.000+01:00

Exit Long ED Z7 and take profit +13 bps

EUR/USD short at 1.4100

2007-10-28T14:31:00.000+01:00

EUR/USD Short at 1.4100 , OCO Long at 1.4200 and Long at 1.4010

ED Z7 Long

2007-10-28T13:43:00.001+01:00

Because of the credit crunch I decided to buy EURODOLLAR December Future 2007 (ED Z7) at 95.17 with a stop-loss at 95.00. (19/10/2007)
My intension is that the FED is forced to reduce the short-term interest rate and ED is up to about 95.50.But I know that the FED has to consider the US inflation!