Saturday, April 5, 2008

NFP Recap

Hi Traders,

I traded GBP/JPY yesterday for the NFP event. The NFP figures were very bad, but you know it. Ok, here is my trade. I decided to trade the GBP/JPY because of the high volatility.


As you can see in the chart the volatility increased minutes before the release. I waited for the release and a possible pull-back of the chart. A good entry-point would be the 50% retracement of the initial spike.


Waiting 4 long minutes without trading! Why? Because I hate risk. Why I trade? Because of the high volatility and a good expected return. But I know NFP is the best time in the month to loose money. Ok, I wait for the pullback: 50% Retracement would be great and I will short this thing.


I draw the Fib-Lines and place an stop-sell order @ 204.05 = 50% Fib-level. Hope I get filled by my broker and the pullback is strong enough.


Strike! Exactly the 50% Retracement I was filled. Ok and now I must set a stop-loss to protect my account. The next candle opened and prices declined. My plan: set the stop at entry after the close of the next candle and then reset the stop at the 38.2% Fib if the pair will drop further and so on.


Oh, oh...look at this here is a nice pullback. I hoped not to stopped-out at break-even....


Thanks! At the close of the next candle I would reset my stop-loss at the 38.2 % @ 203.90



Cool, this candle is red too and I could set my stop-loss @ 203.70 this is the 23.6% Fib-Level. I banked some pips right now. Remember I filled in @ 204.05 and set my new stop-loss @ 203.70 this means that I banked 29 Pips (6 pips spread).



What a pity I stopped out @ my 23.6% Fib-Level. But I could gain some 29 Pips. That was my NFP day...
Have a nice weekend :-)

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